CFA Program Level I
Systematic vs unsystematic risk and diversification: CFA Level I
Systematic (market) risk comes from economy-wide moves and remains however many securities you hold. Unsystematic (firm-specific) risk comes from events at one issuer and shrinks as a portfolio holds more securities that do not move together. The CAPM rewards only systematic risk, because the firm-specific part can be diversified away.
The two kinds of risk
Systematic risk: losses from declines across the markets a portfolio invests in. The SEC's prospectus guide calls this market risk.
Unsystematic risk: the chance that one company goes out of business, has financial problems or underperforms. The SEC's guide calls this business or issuer risk, and notes it is higher for companies without an established record.
Concentration in one industry, sector or region leaves a portfolio less diversified and more volatile.
Total risk = systematic + unsystematic. Beta measures only the systematic part.
How diversification works
For two assets with weights A and B, standard deviations sx and sz, and covariance sxz, the portfolio standard deviation is sqrt(A^2 x sx^2 + B^2 x sz^2 + 2AB x sxz).
The covariance term is the key. The lower it is, the further portfolio risk falls below the weighted average of the two standard deviations. Covariance = correlation x sx x sz.
The SEC's beginners' guide says four or five stocks do not diversify a stock portfolio, and that at least a dozen carefully selected stocks are needed. A total market index fund owns thousands.
Worked example: two assets, 50/50
Asset X: standard deviation 30%. Asset Y: standard deviation 20%. Weights 50% each. The weighted average of the standard deviations is 25%.
Correlation 0.2: covariance = 0.2 x 0.30 x 0.20 = 0.012. Variance = 0.25 x 0.09 + 0.25 x 0.04 + 2 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.012 = 0.0225 + 0.0100 + 0.0060 = 0.0385. Standard deviation = 19.62%.
Correlation 1.0: covariance = 0.06. Variance = 0.0225 + 0.0100 + 0.0300 = 0.0625. Standard deviation = 25.00%, the weighted average. With perfect correlation there is no diversification benefit.
Correlation 0: variance = 0.0325, standard deviation = 18.03%.
Why only systematic risk is priced
The CAPM assumes investors can remove firm-specific risk by diversifying, so it pays no extra expected return for bearing it. Expected return depends on beta alone.
So two stocks with the same beta have the same CAPM expected return, even if one is far more volatile because of firm-specific risk.
This is why the Treynor ratio and Jensen's alpha suit diversified portfolios. A poorly diversified portfolio with a low beta but high total risk can look better on them than it is.
Where the exam catches people
- Believing more holdings remove all risk: diversification removes firm-specific risk; market risk remains.
- Believing a higher standard deviation always means a higher CAPM expected return: only beta, the systematic part, is rewarded.
- Believing portfolio standard deviation is the weighted average of the assets' standard deviations: that is true only when correlation is 1.
- Believing three stocks from three industries are well diversified: a handful of stocks leaves a lot of issuer risk.
- Calling one holding's collapse in a rising market market risk: a single company failing is issuer (unsystematic) risk.
Written from CFA Institute's documentation
- NIST/SEMATECH e-Handbook 2.5.5.2: standard deviation of a function of two variables
- Investor.gov: How to Read a Mutual Fund Prospectus (Part 1 of 3)
- Investor.gov: Beginners' Guide to Asset Allocation, Diversification, and Rebalancing
- Deborah Kidd, Measures of Risk-Adjusted Return: Let's Not Forget Treynor and Jensen (CFA Institute)